thomas @ maillart.xyz
● Tech forecasting · cyber · social interaction

Turning weak signals into science & innovation you can act on.

A way to anticipate emergence in complex human systems — for people who must decide before the evidence is in, so that weak signals become action.

Technological forecasting, cybersecurity economics, and social-interaction science — research and translational work, built for applied decision-making.

Anticipating emergence

Six research perspectives, each sized by current intensity, all attacking one fundamental problem from a different angle — anticipating emergence in complex human systems. Every one of them is the same sentence, finished differently. Hover a perspective to complete it.

A way tox, fory, so thatz

    Future, Present, Past

    Research, talks, teaching, and the hackathons and programmes I run. Open one for the story behind it — recurring subjects share a single explanation.

    • SDG Open Hack — Programme design · Geneva 2026
    • Translational Futures — Lead researcher · Tech Hub · Geneva 2026–27
    • Explainable Forecasting of Scientific Breakthroughs from Concept Network Dynamics — Paper presentation · 16th Global TechMining Conference · Wuhan University, School of Information Management, China 2026
    • Forecasting Conceptual Diffusion in Science: The Case of Quantum Computing — Paper presentation · 16th Global TechMining Conference · Wuhan University, School of Information Management, China 2026
    • HackTheHack — Int'l Conference on Hackathons — General co-chair · Geneva 2023
    • WEIS — Workshop on Economics of Information Security — General chair · Geneva 2023
    • CRITIS — Critical Information Infrastructures Security — General chair · Lausanne 2021
    • Geneva Trialogue — Organiser · Geneva 2021
    • Geneva Trialogue — Organiser · Geneva 2018
    • Algorithmic Design for Hybrid Collective Intelligence (CCS satellite) — Organiser · Cancún 2017
    • Open Science for an Open Society (CCS satellite) — Organiser · Amsterdam 2016
    • Systems Resilience in the Digital Society (NetSci) — Organiser · UC Berkeley 2014
    • The AI4Autism Project: A Multimodal & Interdisciplinary Approach to Autism Diagnosis · Int'l Conference on Multimodal Interaction (ICMI) 2023
    • Forecasting Technological Convergence: A Network-Analytics Approach · Global Tech Mining Conference 2022
    • Forecasting Technology Development in Computer Science: A Carrying-Capacity Indicator · Information Processing & Management Conference (IP&MC) 2022
    • Innovation and Certainty in Law: European Antitrust Enforcement · 6th Annual Conference on Competition Policy · Bergen 2022
    • Innovation and Certainty in Law: European Antitrust Enforcement · EARIE · Vienna 2022
    • Efficient Collective Action for Tackling Time-Critical Cybersecurity Threats · Workshop on Economics of Information Security (WEIS) · Tulsa 2022
    • Play and Work for Greater Good: The Case of Hackathons · European Group for Organizational Studies (EGOS) 2021
    • A Research Agenda for Cyber Risk and Cyber Insurance · Workshop on Economics of Information Security (WEIS) · Boston 2019
    • Detection by Behavioral Response to Haptic Stimuli · SLEEP (conference abstract) 2019
    • Designing Organizations for Cyber Security Resilience · Workshop on Economics of Information Security (WEIS) · Innsbruck 2018
    • Designing Organizations for Productive Bursts · Open User Innovation (OUI) Conference · Innsbruck 2017
    • The Social Bio-Sensory Lab: Unpacking the Origins of Collective Intelligence · Workshop on Computational Modeling, VR, Robotics & Neuroscience · Campus Biotech, Geneva 2017
    • On the Stability of the Scale-Free Principle to Fine-Grained Non-Linear Dynamics · NetSci-X · Tel-Aviv 2017
    • Enhancing Online Community Building & Long-Term Production with Co-Located Events · Conference on Complex Systems (CCS) 2016
    • Cooperation on the Tipping Point: How Rules, Norms & Law Violations Undermine Society · Conference on Complex Systems (CCS) · Law and Complexity 2016
    • Patterns of Human Learning in Complex Systems · Conference on Complex Systems (CCS) 2016
    • Given Enough Eyeballs, All Bugs Are Shallow? Revisiting Eric Raymond with Bug Bounties · Workshop on Economics of Information Security (WEIS) · Berkeley 2016
    • On the Importance of Co-Located Events for Community Building & Long-Term Online Production · Collective Intelligence · New York 2016
    • Caviar and Yachts: How Your Purchase Data May Come Back to Haunt You · Workshop on Economics of Information Security (WEIS) · Delft 2015
    • Improving Physiological Signal Classification Using Logarithmic Quantization · Int'l Conference on Physiological Computing Systems (PhyCS) 2015
    • The Virtuous Circle of Wikipedia: Recursive Measures of Collaboration Structures · CSCW · Vancouver 2015
    • My Thoughts Are Not Your Thoughts · UbiComp · Seattle 2014
    • Government Surveillance and Incentives to Abuse Power · Workshop on Economics of Information Security (WEIS) · State College 2014
    • Characterizing Contribution Strategies & Quality with Bi-Partite Networks in Wikipedia · NetSci · Berkeley 2014
    • Using Prediction Markets to Incentivize & Measure Collective Knowledge Production · Collective Intelligence · Boston 2014
    • Productive Bursts in Group Collaboration — Poster · IPAM Conference on Mathematics of Social Learning · UCLA 2014
    • License Reuse Practices and Violations in Open Source Software · 7th Annual EPIP Conference 'IP in Motion' · Leuven 2012
    • Disentangling Reuse Practices and License Violations in Open Source Software · Workshop on Law & Economics of IP · Schloss Ringberg 2012
    • Exploring the Limits of Safety Analysis in Complex Technological Systems — Poster · Latsis Symposium · ETH Zurich 2012
    • Long Memory Processes in Human Dynamics & Implications for Fast-Changing Regulation · IMPRS-CI · München / Wildbad Kreuth 2011
    • Nuclear Energy and the Stability of Human Societies · Int'l Workshop on Coping with Crises in Complex Socio-Economic Systems · Zurich 2011
    • Colliding Cascades in OSS Development — The Virus of Open Source · Conference Knowledge in Organisations (KIO) · Ascona 2010
    • Beyond Shannon: Characterizing Internet Traffic with Generalized Entropy Metrics · Passive and Active Network Measurement (PAM) 2009
    • Multi-Scale Approach to Decipher and Understand Cyber-Risks · Int'l Workshop on Coping with Crises in Complex Socio-Economic Systems · Zurich 2009
    • The Heavy-Tailed Distribution of Cyber-Risks: From Potential Threats to Measurable Damages · ISIS Conference on Information Risk · Ascona 2008
    • Back to the Future: forecasting technological breakthroughs · ETH Zurich 2025
    • Building a Theory of (Digital) Resilience · ETH Zurich · Helbing group 2025
    • Forecasting breakthroughs · Stanford LEADS 2025
    • Breakthroughs & stewardship · Singapore GovTech 2025
    • Open source, collective action & resilience · Tsinghua Summer School 2024
    • Organizing Cybersecurity Resilience · InfoSec 2024
    • Computational Diplomacy: how OSS & collective action make the world resilient · Vienna 2023
    • Play and Work for Greater Good · Bayes Business School · London 2023
    • The AI4Autism Project · University College London (UCL) 2022
    • Cognition: The New Cybersecurity Frontier · InfoSec 2022
    • A quantitative future for the management of cyber risks · Cyber Alp Retreat 2022
    • Technological forecasting (job talk) · HEC Lausanne 2021
    • SDG Open Hack — faculty workshop · Tsinghua 2021
    • A quantitative future for the management of cyber risks · CYD Conference · armasuisse 2020
    • Technology foresight · Swissnex China 2020
    • Cognition: The New Cybersecurity Frontier · Paris 2018
    • Infrastructure resilience · ETH Zurich 2018
    • Open data & collective action · ITU · Geneva 2018
    • Human dynamics in complex systems · ParisTech 2017
    • The Social Bio-Sensory Lab · Idiap Research Institute 2017
    • Bug bounties & the economics of security · CISAC · Stanford 2016
    • Rethinking Attackers · Dagstuhl Seminar 2016
    • Brain dynamics & social sensing · OHBM 2016
    • Collective intelligence & online production · MIT 2015
    • Brainwaves & social sensing · EPFL 2014
    • Cyber risk · EURECOM 2014
    • Human dynamics in complex systems · Branco Weiss Fellowship 2013
    • Cyber risk & national security · MELANI · Swiss Confederation 2013
    • Cyber risks · University of Oxford 2012
    • Open source software dynamics · ESF-COST 2010
    • Cyber-risk & complex systems · CCSS Workshop · ETH Zurich 2009
    • Computational diplomacy — keynote for Tsinghua IIIS — Keynote · Campus Biotech, Geneva · 20 bachelor students 2026
    • Computational diplomacy for Northwestern Polytechnical University — Session lead · Geneva Centre for Security Policy · 40 students from NPU, Xi'an 2026
    • Building Anticipation Briefs and the Economy of Adaptation for International Geneva — Session lead · Graduate Institute, Geneva · 20 students, Tsinghua School of Economics and Management 2026
    • Anchored Minds, Collective Foresight: How Collective Intelligence Reshapes the Perceived Ruggedness of a Smooth Problem — Paper presentation · ACM Collective Intelligence 2026 · Virginia Tech Academic Building One, near Washington, D.C. 2026
    • SDG Open Hack! Singapore — Grand Finale — Programme design · Singapore 2026
    • FacMed Hack #1 — Digital Phenotyping of Mental Health — Hackathon design · Campus Biotech, Geneva 2026

      The first hackathon of the UNIGE Faculty of Medicine turns digital phenotyping on mental health into 32 hours of building. Around fifty master's and doctoral students, clinicians, researchers and engineers work in interdisciplinary teams on six challenges submitted by researchers themselves, so the problems are the ones the field actually has. It is run with Campus Neuro, the Synapsy research centre, the Swiss Centre for Affective Sciences, the Wyss Center, the Geneva University Hospitals and EPFL, at Campus Biotech. The aim is deliberately concrete: teams leave not with slideware but with project sketches solid enough to be funded, bridging clinic, laboratory and engineering in one room.

    • TU Berlin Social Robotics Hack — Co-instructor (Lehrbeauftragter) · TU Berlin, MAR campus · Cognitive Psychology & Cognitive Ergonomics (KKE) 2026

      A build course rather than a lecture: Vibe-Coding Social Robots, run with Eva Wiese's cognitive ergonomics group at TU Berlin and taught with Matt Huebert. It opens with a needs library seeded from the lab's own research problems — validating and sharpening those needs is also how students earn one of the credit-bearing seats. Then five teaching sessions on AI-assisted building and on AI stewardship, delegating, verifying, overriding and refusing; an on-site hackathon at the MAR campus; and three supervised weeks hardening the result. Every team ships a runnable artefact the group can actually pick up — a stimulus generator, a gaze-cueing harness, an evaluation probe for LLM participants.

    • Geneva Quantum Hack #3 — Quantum Technologies for Space — Hackathon design · CERN IdeaSquare 2027
    • Let's rehearse our futures — Keynote · UC Education · Kunming, Yunnan 2026

      A keynote in Kunming on what education owes students who will spend their working lives inside the SDG problem space. The argument: the SDGs are three problems at once — an innovation challenge, a coordination challenge, and a measurement challenge — and none of the three is taught by lecturing at people. Learning by doing is the honest response, which is what ten years of SDG Open Hack across Geneva, Tsinghua, Singapore and Yunnan have been building. AI sharpens the point rather than settling it: used alone it isolates and produces fast wrong answers; used collectively, with peers, review and shared evidence, it lets small teams analyse, prototype and localise faster than ever.

    • The science behind vibecoding, and how it has upgraded hackathons — Talk · 14:00 · ETH Zürich Main Building · Hacking Democracy, 7–11 September 2026

      A talk inside a week-long build at ETH Zürich, organised by Dirk Helbing's group: two mornings of short papers — vTaiwan and participatory budgeting in Winterthur, adaptive preference elicitation, deliberation, voting as pluralistic optimisation, open government data, generative AI — then teams form and spend three supervised days making something, closing with presentations and prizes on the Friday. My slot falls on the Tuesday afternoon, immediately before the building starts, which is the right moment for the question: what does the evidence actually say about vibecoding, and what does AI-assisted building change about what a hackathon can be expected to produce in five days?

    Grants & funded work

    Competitive research funding across ~15 years. Bar position & length = project period; bar thickness = amount; colour = my role.

    raised across grants & contracts

    Citation intensity

    A revisited Scholar timeline — how citation intensity builds across years and shifts between fields. Darker = more intense; hover a cell for detail.